Fact Sheet: Results from the Current Measures Scenario

The Current Measures Scenario does not aim for net-zero emissions; it assumes minimal efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond the existing measures and has the slowest pace of technological development of all the scenarios. This scenario offers a glimpse into Canada’s future if no additional action is taken to combat climate change beyond the current measures in place. The modelling results are not required to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in Canada by 2050.

a river flowing through mountains

Net-Zero by 2050

By 2050, electricity will make up 25% of total end-use energy use, up from 17% in 2021, while fossil fuel use will drop by 3% from 2021 to 2050.

  • GHG emissions are projected to be 566 megatonnes (MT) by 2050, 13% lower than 2021 levels.
  • Electricity demand grows more slowly than in the net-zero scenarios, increasing by 62% over the projection period.
  • Unabated natural gas-fired generation will increase steadily by 38% from 2021 to 2050, making up 11% of total generation by 2050.
  • By 2050, nuclear generation will remain close to current levels through much of the projection period, with very limited growth in Small Module Reactors.
  • Wind generation does not grow as quickly as in the net-zero scenarios but still increases substantially from current levels and will be seven times higher by 2050.
  • Electric vehicle sales will grow to 50% of all vehicle sales by 2035 and 75% in 2050.
  • Oil production will reach 6.1 million barrels per day (MMb/d) by 2050, 20% higher than in 2022, and natural gas production will grow to 21.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), a 24% increase over the projection period.
  • LNG exports reach 4.6 Bcf/d by 2034 and remain there to 2050. While the economics of Canadian LNG were examined, these are assumptions, not results from the modelling.
  • Oil sands production rises from 3.29 MMb/d in 2022 to 3.73 MMb/d in 2030 and largely holds steady, reaching 3.59 MMb/d by 2050. 
  • GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector decline moderately over the projection to 149 MT in 2050, 21% lower than in 2021.

Important things for you to know:

  • The results in EF2023 are not predictions about the future nor are they policy recommendations. Rather, they are the product of scenarios based on a specific premise and set of assumptions.
  • The CER produces timely, fact-based, and relevant energy analysis to inform the energy conversation in Canada.
  • This long-term Canadian energy supply and demand outlook covers all energy commodities and Canadian provinces and territories and makes projections to 2050 using economic and energy models.
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